ANTHROPIC RESEARCH · MARCH 2026

Will AI Replace Your Job?

Research-backed risk scores for 800+ occupations, grounded in Anthropic's 2026 labor market study.

800+
Occupations Analyzed
75%
Highest Task Coverage
14%
Hiring Drop (Ages 22–25)
47%
Higher Pay in Exposed Jobs

How It Works

01
🗂
O*NET Task Database
800+ US occupations broken into specific tasks with time-weight estimates from the Department of Labor.
02
📡
Real LLM Usage Data
Anthropic Economic Index: actual Claude usage patterns from professional conversations, August and November 2025.
03
β
Eloundou β Scores
Theoretical LLM feasibility scores (β=1.0: 2× faster alone; β=0.5: needs tools; β=0.0: not feasible).

Key Research Findings

📉
No Unemployment Spike (Yet)
No statistically significant unemployment increase detected for even the most AI-exposed workers as of early 2026.
👶
Entry Level Hit Hardest
Workers aged 22–25 entering high-exposure occupations show a 14% drop in job-finding rate post-ChatGPT.
💰
High Earners at Risk
Exposed workers earn 47% more on average. Graduate degrees are 3.9× more common — AI flips the historical disruption pattern.
BLS Confirms the Signal
Every 10 percentage points of observed AI exposure correlates with 0.6pp lower projected employment growth (2024–2034).
🔬
Observed, Not Theoretical
Unlike prior models, this uses real Claude usage data from professional settings, not just theoretical task feasibility.
🔗
Task Bundling Matters
60% task exposure doesn't automate a job if the remaining 40% requires physical presence, legal accountability, or emotional intelligence.

Find Out Your Risk Score

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